Note: This piece was written before the Orioles signed pitcher Alex Cobb
With Opening Day fast approaching, I will take a look at each of the American and National League Divisions, analyzing why each team could win the division and why they might not. Today, I will start with the American League East.
Baltimore Orioles
2017 Record: 75-87, 5th place
Why they could win the division: Fangraphs currently projects the Orioles to win 75 games in 2018, which would match last year’s total. However, Buck Showalter’s clubs have defied the odds in the past, and they could do so again this year. If Baltimore wants to beat the projections once more, they’ll need to rely on their usual mix of power and stingy relief pitching. Their offense, headlined by shortstop Manny Machado, will send a lot of balls into the seats. Even without lockdown closer Zach Britton, the bullpen is still in capable hands with the likes of Darren O’Day, Brad Brach, and Mychal Givens. If the starting rotation (last in MLB in ERA in 2017) pitches even slightly better than they did a season ago, this team can return to the playoffs.
Why they might not: If I’m an Orioles fan (and I am), I would trust this rotation as far as I could throw it. Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations Dan Duquette brought back a rotation that ranked in the bottom half of the majors in almost every important statistical category. He’s banking on improvements from former top prospects Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy, but it remains to be seen if they can take the next step in their progression. The team replaced the departed Ubaldo Jimenez and Wade Miley with Andrew Cashner and Mike Wright. Those aren’t exactly significant upgrades. The offense, while loaded with power bats, still struggles to get on base (27th in OBP) and still doesn’t steal bases (last in MLB). Even the bullpen has started to show some leaks (12th in ERA, last in K/9). The relievers might struggle to adjust their new roles early on. With the Yankees on the rise and Boston as good as ever, this could be a long season for the O’s.
Final record: 77-85 (5th place)
Boston Red Sox
2017 Record: 93-69, 1st place (lost to the Houston Astros in the ALDS)
Why they could win the division: Boston’s roster is almost identical to the team that won the AL East last year. That’s both a good and bad thing for Red Sox fans. The Sox improved an offense that ranked 22nd in OPS and 27th in home runs last year with the addition of slugger J.D. Martinez. The former Arizona Diamondback didn’t get the lavish contract he expected at the start of free agency, but his .303/.376/.690 slash line should give the lineup a boost. Combine that with a full season of Rafael Devers and the usual production from the other stars (especially when Dustin Pedroia returns) and Boston will give opposing pitchers fits in 2018. The rotation is a little banged up, but with Chris Sale and David Price leading the way, Boston is in good hands.
Why they might not: Fangraphs projects the Red Sox to win the AL East again this year, but with the burgeoning Yankees on their heels, that isn’t a certainty. As dynamic as Boston’s lineup is, they may still struggle to hit home runs. Some of that is due to the dimensions of Fenway Park (park factors ranked them as the fifth toughest place to homer at in 2017), some of it is because of the lack of pop in the lineup. Martinez should help, but some of the homers he hit last year might turn into doubles this year (Fenway was the fourth easiest place to hit doubles at last year). Outside of Sale and Price–who isn’t the pitcher he once was–the Sox have serious question marks in the rotation. With Brian Johnson and Hector Velazquez expected to fill in for Steven Wright and Drew Pomeranz (both are on the DL), that could determine whether Boston plays in the wild card game or if they get the EZ Pass to the ALDS.
Final Record: 92-70 (2nd, wild card eliminated in ALDS)
New York Yankees
2017 Record: 91-71, 2nd place (wild card, lost to the Houston Astros in the ALCS)
Why they could win the division: Rookie manager Aaron Boone inherits a New York club that came within a game of reaching the World Series last October. The “Bronx Bombers” returned in a big way last year; leading the majors in home runs and ranking third in OPS. Those stats may rise even further with the addition of Giancarlo Stanton (1.007 OPS). The 2017 NL MVP joins a lineup that has two 50 homer guys and other emerging stars like Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, and Greg Bird. They will have no trouble scoring runs.
The pitching staff, which ranked in the top five in starters and relievers ERA, looks similar to last years outfit. Young flamethrower Luis Severino, who enjoyed a breakout campaign last year, anchors this rotation. He’s flanked by incumbent veterans Masahiro Tanaka (3.77 ERA, .229/.267/.405 opponents slash line in second half of 2017), C.C. Sabathia (3.69 ERA), and Sonny Gray (3.72 ERA in 11 starts with the Yankees). The bullpen boasts the stingy trio of Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, and David Robertson; all of them had ERA’s no lower than 3.22 in 2017. These Yankees have a good chance of unseating Boston at the top of the AL East…
Why they might not: …Unless the rotation falls apart. Severino looks like a safe bet to repeat his 2017 success, as does Gray, but the same can’t be said for the other two mainstays. Tanaka’s disastrous first half (5.47 ERA) might be difficult to erase from Yankee fans’ minds. They better hope his gaudy home run totals (1.77 HR/9) were due to a fluky 21.2 HR/FB ratio. Sabathia is also due to regress to the mean (4.49 FIP in 2017). If they struggle and Severino slips a bit, New York is in trouble. Their bullpen isn’t airtight either. They tend to walk a lot of batters (19th in BB/9) and those could come back to haunt them, especially come October. Thier two best players on offense, Stanton and Judge, whiff a lot (both ranked in the top 30 in strikeout rate), meaning the Yankees could endure some prolonged scoring slumps. The Yankees are too good to miss the playoffs, but their deficiencies could cost them the division.
Final Record: 94-68 (1st, eliminated in ALCS)
Tampa Bay Rays
2017 Record: 80-82 (3rd place)
Why they could win the division: As usual, pitching powers manager Kevin Cash’s club. Tampa Bay ranked in the top 10 in ERA and WHIP for both the starters and relievers last year, and the Rays hope to do the same in 2018. Chris Archer is still the staff ace, and he should improve on last year’s 4.07 ERA. The other starters–Blake Snell, Nathan Eovaldi, and Jacob Faria–are less reliable, but they should thrive in the most spacious ballpark in the AL East. Plus, they’ll get to pitch behind a tremendous defense (3rd in defensive runs saved last year) headlined by ballhawk centerfielder Kevin Keirmaier. The Rays will also get help from a bevy of top prospects that are scheduled to come up this year, like Jake Bauers, Justin Williams, Anthony Banda, Christian Arroyo, and Willy Adames. In other words, the Rays might look very different at the end of the year. If the Rays’ offense produces at an average rate to buttress the pitching, they could surprise some people.
Why they might not: This team won’t feel the same without Evan Longoria manning third base. The 2018 Rays lineup doesn’t gin up a lot of fear on paper. Carlos Gomez is probably the most dangerous hitter in this lineup. That doesn’t bode well for Tampa Bay. There is also some uncertainty in the rotation thanks to the departures of Alex Cobb and Jake Odorizzi. While those two weren’t Cy Young candidates by any stretch, they provided steady production that’s hard to replace. For the Rays to compete, everything needs to go right. If not, they might start fielding offers for their veteran players, starting with Archer.
Final record: 81-81 (fourth)
Toronto Blue Jays
2017 Record: 76-86, fourth place
Why they could win the division: The Blue Jays were terrible in almost every offensive category last year, so they did some retooling. Out went Jose Bautista, in came Curtis Granderson, Randal Grichuk, and Aledmys Diaz. Granderson and Grichuk should easily replace Bautista’s substandard production while Diaz should aid a Toronto defense that ranked 21st in defensive runs saved. Josh Donalson is still the player that opponents will gameplan around. The 2015 AL MVP’s production slipped a little last year, but he is still one of the best two-way players in the game. If Justin Smoak can replicate his 2017 season (not out of the question), that should be more than enough to ensure opposing pitchers throw strikes to Donaldson. On the mound, youngster Marcus Stroman improves his ERA by more than one run in 2017. If he pitches just as well this year and gets help from the other starters (including a full season from Aaron Sanchez), then Toronto could be a good sleeper pick in the AL.
Why they might not: Even at their best, the Blue Jays don’t have the arms or the bats to hang with Boston or New York. Any team that banks on quality seasons from Marco Estrada and J.A. Happ to bring them back to the playoffs is rolling the dice. Outside of Donaldson, the Toronto lineup comprises of mostly average hitters. That’s actually the best way to sum up the Blue Jays: average but not spectacular. Average is good enough to stay respectable, but it won’t get Toronto into the playoffs.
Final Record: 83-79 (third)
Tomorrow: I will analyze the American League Central Teams
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